Avocado will be the most traded major tropical fruit by 2030, an OECD, United Nations Agricultural Outlook report projects.

Currently, avocado has the lowest production level among the major tropical fruits, which include mango, pineapple and papaya.

However, the report says avocados have experienced the fastest growth in output in recent years and is expected to remain the fastest growing commodity of the major tropical fruits from 2021-2030.

In response to rapidly growing global demand, the report says avocado is expected to become the most traded major tropical fruit by 2030, reaching 3.9Mt of exports and overtaking both pineapple, the current biggest export, and mango.

“Ample global demand and lucrative export unit prices continue to be the main  drivers  of  this  growth,  stimulating  substantial  investments  in  area  expansion  in  both  major  and emerging production zones,” says the report.

“Production is accordingly projected to reach 12Mt by 2030 – more than three times its level in 2010.”

The reports says ample global demand and lucrative export unit prices continue to be the main  drivers  of  this  growth,  stimulating  substantial  investments  in  area  expansion  in  both  major  and emerging production zones.

Import, export

Avocado production has been so far concentrated in a small number of regions and countries, with the top ten producing countries accounting for almost 80 per cent of global output, but new growing areas are emerging rapidly. Nevertheless, the report says about 74 per cent of avocado production is expected to remain in Latin America and the Caribbean, given the favourable growing conditions.

“The United States and the European Union, where consumer interest in avocados is fuelled by the fruit’s assumed health benefits, are expected to remain the main importers, with 40 per cent and 31 per cent of global imports in 2030, respectively,” says the report.

“However, imports are also rapidly rising in many other countries such as in China and some countries  in  the  Middle  East,  and,  as  measured  by  the  Herfindahl-Hirschman  Index  of  all importers, the concentration of imports is gradually decreasing.”

Bananas remain the most popular traded fruit, with a global net import quantity of about 18.9Mt in 2020.

Read the report, here: www.fao.org/3/cb5332en/cb5332en.pdf