Outlook with Bill Webb Bill Webb Feed Solutions

So we certainly had a bit more rain in June-July compared to the last six months. For July we’ve had 102mm. But we still have a big deficit compared to the usual 1600mm rainfall in 12 months. Even though it’s got reasonably wet on and off our water tables are still quite low. And it has got colder as winter has arrived. And spring is just around the corner.

So farmers are out there are starting to see cows springing up, and some have begun calving. Cows on our dairy grazing blocks are heading home.

I’m still hearing of the odd issue with nitrate poisoning. We had one block we had to pull the cows off because nitrates were too high. Especially after long dry spells and everything takes off, this seems to accentuate the problem. We made silage from the grass left, but you still have to watch nitrate levels with this – or just leave grazing it until levels drop after a few frosts and fine days if you can. But you’ll still need to add silage or hay to the diet on and off and not put cows on fresh grass hungry.

A recent Global Dairy Trade price index was up 8.3 per cent – its biggest lift since November 2016. Since writing this, it’s jumped a further 1.9 per cent - the fifth consecutive gain at the twice-monthly auction.

Whole Milk Powder prices – which have the biggest bearing on Fonterra’s farmgate milk price – leapt by 14 per cent to US$3208 a tonne and back to where they were in late January of this year.

I don’t think anyone was expecting that – it is really good news for dairy farmers, Fonterra has upgraded its milk price forecast for the 2021 season to a range of $5.90-$6.90/kgMS from $5.40-$6.90/kgMS, but farmers aren’t out of the woods yet. There’s still uncertainty as many countries put states back into lockdown, such as Australia and the US. So NZ is doing bloody well, and we’re certainly benefitting from the global situation and we’re not as bad off as we thought we were going to be.

Take timeout

Financially, we might not be in as good a position as we were – although finance analysts are saying we are back to our debt levels of the 1980s and early-1990s, but with lower interest rates. So we’re not too dire yet. We just have to ensure the overzealous spending from the top doesn’t continue and purse strings do tighten up. And the banks are looking at reassessing the newly forecasted Fonterra dairy payout – that’s the silver lining at this stage.

Back to cows calving, there will be a need for feed. So don’t get complacent with a bit of extra grass growing in this mild weather. And with rain, watch the pugging. And order feed early because it is a long time between now and when spring does arrive.

In the news recently I heard an ACC-funded study for Farmstrong shows 58 per cent of recently-injured farmers linked their accident to stress associated with farm work. One-quarter said it was a major factor. Exhaustion, lack of sleep, stresses of farming, being isolated from friends and family, and being unable to take a break all add to the risks that a farmer or farm worker will have an accident, the new research shows.

So this is real reminder to farmers that they need their time-out. They need to be careful they’re not getting overstressed as the job is 24/7. We know farmers are very busy – they do a lot of different tasks in a day. There’s always something to do on-farm – and something always crops up that has to be dealt with when you already have tasks planned. So monitor your stress levels and get help if you need it.

Covid cliff

To the next topic – for exports and imports, there’s word that supply chains are going to be stretched in the near future. Exports could be worse-affected and imports could be more expensive due to freight costs. So we’ll possibly see an increase in the price of products, and maybe some shortages too as things slow down getting into NZ due to Covid. With Australia and US locking down states again, many imports could be affected. They call it the Covid Cliff. So beware when ordering things. If there’s product you know you will need, order it early – so suppliers know what they’re in for so a bottleneck doesn’t happen.

If you need maize seed, chemical product etc – order it now. As what used to take three weeks to get here may now take six weeks, and if you leave it too late you will miss the season. Plan now and think ahead. Be proactive rather than reactive. Calf meals, drenches and machinery oils etc – order it now. Remember the maize season last year? When farmers wanted it, it wasn’t there because some didn’t order well enough in advance. Even supermarkets could be affected too by the possible Covid Cliff.

We are taking orders now for bulk grass, baled silage and maize silage for the coming season. We recommend you order early to avoid disappointment later when you need feed and supply is short and prices high. Remember:  ‘Proper planning prevents pitiful performance’ in what looks like potential for another good payment season ahead of us.